COST

How COST Has Actually Traded Around Earnings

Over the last eight reported quarters, Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) has beaten the official earnings estimate six times, a 75% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of just 0.4%. That combination matters: the company usually clears the published consensus, but not by a wide margin, so “beating” does not always translate into a sustained rally. Across those same eight quarters, the average 5-day price move in the trading days after the report was -1.51%, classified as a down drift. In other words, even when COST reports in-line or slightly ahead of expectations, the stock has historically given back ground over the following week.

The most recent four quarters show that pattern in action. On 2026-05-28, COST reported actual EPS of $4.93 versus an estimate of $5.00, a -1.4% surprise and a miss. The stock fell 3.91% the next day and was down 2.3% over the following five sessions. Before that, on 2026-03-05, the company earned $4.58 versus the $4.55 estimate, a 0.7% beat, and rallied 1.58% the next day and 2.11% over the next five days. On 2025-12-11, a 1.6% beat—actual EPS $4.34 versus estimate $4.27—produced a flat 0% next-day move and a -3.04% five-day drift. Finally, on 2025-09-25, COST beat with $5.87 versus $5.80, a 1.2% surprise, yet the stock dropped 2.9% the next session and 2.81% over the next five days. The takeaway is that the headline beat-or-miss label has not reliably predicted the direction of the post-earnings move.

What the Upcoming 2026-09-24 Earnings Date Means for Options Flow

Costco’s next report is scheduled for 2026-09-24 after the close, with the current consensus EPS estimate at $6.51. As that date approaches, options activity typically reflects both the expected earnings move and the unofficial consensus around members-only traffic, warehouse margins, and renewal trends. Traders often watch the implied move priced by the at-the-money straddle rather than trying to guess the direction, because that implied move is what the market is currently willing to pay for upside and downside protection combined.

Given the historical 5-day post-earnings drift of -1.51%, options flow can sometimes show a tilt toward put hedging or call overwriting from existing shareholders, especially after a run. Skew and volume around the 2026-09-24 expiration can signal whether participants are positioning for a volatility contraction after the announcement or for an outsized gap relative to the -1.51% average drift. If the straddle implies a one-day move materially different from the recent next-day swings—such as the -3.91%, +1.58%, 0%, and -2.9% moves seen in the last four reports—the options market may be pricing in either a calmer quarter or a binary catalyst around membership fees and guidance.

A Disciplined Checklist for the Report

A disciplined approach starts with the numbers that matter most. On 2026-09-24, compare actual EPS directly to the $6.51 consensus estimate, and track sales growth, membership fee income, and renewal rates. Then match the stock’s reaction to the established pattern: the average 5-day drift of -1.51% and the down drift classification across the last eight reports. At the current snapshot, COST is priced at $940.87, below the 50-day EMA of $964.00, with an RSI of 47.2. Those levels can serve as reference points rather than signals: a close back above or below the 50-day EMA after the report may indicate how institutional investors are repositioning relative to the Consumer Defensive/Discount Stores group.

Risk management around earnings should account for the historical next-day volatility seen in COST—moves of -3.91%, +1.58%, 0%, and -2.9% in just the last year—and the tendency for some beats to fade over five sessions. Rather than sizing based on the beat rate alone, a trader can use the actual surprise percentages and post-earning drifts to set realistic brackets for the expected move, place stop-loss and take-profit levels, and compare the realized move against the implied move from options pricing.

For a deeper dive into how the full sell-side community is positioned ahead of Costco’s 2026-09-24 report, including the latest institutional upgrades, downgrades, and revenue estimates, review the full institutional verdict on the ticker.