COST

COST's Earnings Track Record: Beats Without Bullish Drift

Over the last eight reported quarters, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has beaten analyst EPS estimates six times, a beat rate of 75%, while the average earnings surprise has been only 0.4%. Despite that majority beat record, the average five-trading-day price move after those reports is -1.51%, classified as a down drift. The most recent four quarters illustrate the pattern in detail. On 2026-05-28, COST delivered actual EPS of $4.93 against an estimate of $5.00, a -1.4% surprise and a miss; the stock fell 3.91% the next day and 2.3% over the following five sessions. On 2026-03-05, the company reported $4.58 versus an estimate of $4.55, a 0.7% beat, and the stock rose 1.58% the next day and 2.11% over five days. On 2025-12-11, actual EPS was $4.34 versus an estimate of $4.27, a 1.6% beat, but the next-day move was 0% and the five-day drift was -3.04%. On 2025-09-25, actual EPS was $5.87 versus an estimate of $5.80, a 1.2% beat, yet the stock dropped 2.9% the next day and 2.81% over the following five sessions. Three of the last four five-day post-earnings moves were negative, which means earnings beats alone have not been enough to sustain buying pressure.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the 2026-09-24 Report

COST's next scheduled earnings release is on 2026-09-24 after the close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $6.51. With the stock at $935.03, below its 50-day EMA of $957.91 and an RSI of 46.6, pre-event options positioning can form around the 950–960 strike zone as a focal point for gamma and delta hedging. Ahead of the release, options markets price event risk through elevated implied volatility, and that volatility premium can collapse after the numbers are out if the realized move is smaller than what was priced in. The printed consensus estimate is $6.51, but the market's real expectation may be different because it factors in guidance, membership-fee momentum, and comparable-sales trends. For traders, the relevant comparison is the cost of an at-the-money straddle for the expiration directly following the report versus the historical five-day realized drift of -1.51%. A high straddle premium relative to that realized drift implies the market is demanding extra protection around the event.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches at This Earnings Event

Given COST's history, a disciplined trader starts with the gap between the $6.51 consensus and the prior comparable report: on 2025-09-25, actual EPS was $5.87, so the year-over-year bar is higher. The trader also notes the 75% beat rate alongside the -1.51% average five-day drift, which tells us that simply clearing $6.51 has not automatically produced a lasting rally. The magnitude of any beat matters relative to recent prints: the 1.2% and 1.6% beats of September and December 2025 both produced negative five-day moves, while the smaller 0.7% beat in March 2026 was followed by a 2.11% gain. Price position also matters. COST at $935.03 sits below its 50-day EMA of $957.91, so that level can serve as a reference for where overhead supply may appear if the stock gaps higher. Because the RSI is 46.6, the setup is neutral rather than stretched, so the post-earnings reaction has room to move in either direction.

For a deeper look at directional positioning, volatility skew, and the full institutional verdict ahead of the 2026-09-24 report, readers should consult the complete institutional breakdown on the platform.